A CRISE AO MOMENTO: O CIRCO MONETÁRIO!

“Investor sentiment has swung from increasing concern last week about a global financial crisis mark two, to now thinking that the [European sovereign debt] problem will be more contained,” said Shane Oliver of AMP Capital Investors in Sydney.

Seguir a crise ao momento, step by step, é talvez a melhor forma de compreender o que é o sistema monetário internacional, hoje.

É que os mercados hoje vivem da oscilação e do boato, num verdadeiro circo monetário, da depressão à euforia e onde um but funciona como um tiro de pistola. Ora vejam:

• A EUFORIA: The stabilisation scheme consists of government-backed loan guarantees and bilateral loans worth up to €440bn provided by eurozone members; a further €60bn supported by all European Union members through expansion of an existing balance of payments facility; and up to €220bn provided by the International Monetary Fund.

• A ACALMIA: The European Central Bank will also intervene in government bond markets and join the US Federal Reserve and other main central banks in reactivating extra US dollar liquidity facilities.

• A ANÁLISE: Analysts said Asian stocks rose because the emergency actions had lowered the risk of an economic crisis in the eurozone, which is a huge market for Asian exports. 

• A REACÇÃO: Credit markets also reacted sharply to the news. In the credit default swap market, the cost of protecting Asia-Pacific bonds against default fell by the most in a year.

• A CONTRA-REACÇÃO: But some analysts warned that the market euphoria surrounding the EU emergency measures could prove short-lived.“We find it hard to escape the conclusion that, for now, the EU plan not only lacks details but, even if it is for real, faces some serious road blocks,” said Louis Gave at research house Gavekal in Hong Kong.